Habib Onifade
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Chapter 00

Your work was funded.

Now it has to sell.

Being funded proved the need was real. What changes is who pays. I work out who holds that budget, what they will pay, and what it costs you to deliver.

Score your organisationSee what I do
Habib Onifade
Who pays you when the grant stopsNine decisions, in orderEvidence, not adjectivesA price that covers the real costResults that outlive your exitWho pays you when the grant stopsNine decisions, in orderEvidence, not adjectivesA price that covers the real costResults that outlive your exit
Chapter 01What changed

Aid is becoming investment. Investment expects a return.

28%

the top of the range bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa was projected to fall by in 2025

OECD, Cuts in Official Development Assistance, June 2025

11

donor countries with further cuts announced to 2027, together nearly three quarters of all aid

OECD, Cuts in Official Development Assistance, June 2025

$65m

the median blended finance deal now, up from 38m

Convergence, State of Blended Finance 2025

1

question that now decides everything. Who pays you?

Most people in the sector know about the cuts. The part that gets less attention is what happened to the money that stayed. It did not disappear. It got fussier. Fewer deals, each one bigger, and local money matters more than it did five years ago.

That is not a funding problem. It is a commercial one, and commercial problems can be solved.

Find out where you stand
Chapter 02Who this is for

People who have to start earning what they used to be given.

01

NGOs

delivering a service that somebody else pays for. The work is good. The invoice does not exist yet.

02

Businesses

already trading, with one service line a funder still pays for. That subsidy ends the way a grant does.

03

Programmes

moving the businesses they support onto their own feet, and needing them to still be standing after exit.

Chapter 03What I do

Four advisory methods.One subscription.

Find the sentence that sounds like your situation. Each one leads somewhere specific.

01Advisory

Our funding ends and nobody is paying us yet.

Grant to Commercial Viability Canvas

I find which of your services somebody will pay for, what it really costs you to deliver, and who holds that budget. Then we sell to one real customer while your funding is still there.

Score your organisation
02Subscription

How much can this business absorb, and what changes if we invest?

Market Intelligence

A system that collects real transaction data from every business in your portfolio, week by week, and tells you who to back, how much they can take, and what changes if you do.

Join as a founding subscriber
03Advisory

We asked for money and got turned down. Nobody told us why.

The Investment Case Canvas

Usually the case was built in the wrong order, with the ask first and the evidence last. I rebuild it the other way round, so the money can see how it comes back.

Send me your case
04Advisory

When our programme closes, will any of this still be running?

Intervention Design Canvas

Your whole design on one page, as nine numbered decisions your team, partners and donor can all read. Built so a private business makes money from keeping it going after you leave.

Talk about your programme
05Advisory

Our cash is tied up in stock and suppliers want paying up front.

Enterprise Trade Liquidity Multiplier

Instead of lending your cash out, we keep it where everyone can see it. Suppliers then extend you their own credit, because visible money makes you safe to trade with.

See if you qualify

Scroll the row to see all five. Not sure which one fits your situation?

Send me an enquiryOr start with the score
Chapter 04The method

Every method runs on a canvas.That is the whole idea.

Alex Osterwalder made this argument for business models and he was right. Put every decision on one page and three things happen. You see the whole picture at once. You see which pieces do not fit. And everyone in the room is looking at the same thing.

That last one matters more than it sounds. A canvas is the only format I have found that a chief executive, a field team, a partner and a donor can all read together without a translator. So each method is a canvas of numbered decisions, each with one question, one output, and a test that says whether it is finished.

9

decisions

Grant to Commercial Viability

From funded delivery to a paying customer.

9

decisions, four stages

Intervention Design

For programme teams designing for life after exit.

8

steps, then a fork

Investment Case

For anyone who has been turned down without a reason.

7

things scored

Market Intelligence

Four readiness tiers, from real transaction data.

See a canvas in full
Chapter 05Evidence

What the work found.

Fifteen engagements. Some of this contradicts what the sector tells itself, and it is written plainly because that is how it turned up.

01

Training is not transformation

Implementation learning

Training alone does not improve produce quality. The market has to reward quality before quality appears. That changes what a capability budget should be buying.

02

Inclusion without income is still exclusion

Systemic insight

A study tracing where the money actually lands in a value chain, and how little of it reaches the people a programme counted as included.

03

A donor programme that became a business

Transition

A regional seed and markets programme moved from donor funded to a private company across three Southern African countries, with clear customers and its own plan.

All fifteen, and the frameworks behind them

Programmes I have worked on

Adam Smith International, Mercy Corps, Palladium
Habib Onifade
Who does this

Corporate finance first. Development second.

That order matters. I came to development from corporate finance, which is why the models I build are meant to be used rather than filed.

The steps are the same every time. Find out who pays. Design the service for them. Build the numbers. Test it on a real customer. Hand it over.

UGX 33bn
of trade a UGX 1bn reserve was structured to unlock
98%+
repayment across a structured credit cluster
832
households profiled in a liquidity study
7
countries across Africa
Chapter 06Take something with you

Useful without me.

Free. Give an email once and take everything in the library, plus the longer newsletter that only goes out from here.

Two minutes

Commercial Readiness Score

The ten questions I ask in a first session, scored, with your gaps named and one next step.

Score your organisation
One page

The canvas, as a wall print

All nine decisions on a single sheet you can put on a wall and work through with your team.

Get the print
Checklist

Investment case checklist

The eight things a funder checks for, in the order they check them. Use it before you send anything.

Get the checklist
Video

Lessons from implementation

Twenty years of running economic development programmes, in short pieces you can watch on a commute.

Watch on YouTube
Open the libraryWatch instead
Chapter 07

Find out where you stand.

Ten questions. Two minutes. A report naming where your work starts, and what being wrong about each gap costs you.

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